4901:5-7-03 Gas and natural gas demand forecasts for gas distribution companies serving more than fifteen thousand customers.

(A) General guidelines. The following guidelines shall be used in the preparation of the demand forecast:

(1) The demand forecast must be based upon independent analysis by the reporting utility.

(2) The demand forecast may be based on those forecasting methods which yield the most useful results to the utility.

(3) Where the required data have not been calculated directly, relevant conversion factors shall be displayed.

(4) All gas volumes shall be reported at 14.73 psia.

(B) Special subject areas.

(1) The following matters shall specifically be addressed:

(a) A description of the extent to which the reporting utility coordinates its load forecasts with those of other systems such as affiliated systems in a holding company group, or other neighboring systems and, if the reporting utility is a combination utility, a description of the coordination of its gas load forecast with its electric load forecast.

(b) A description of the manner in which such forecasts are coordinated, and any problems experienced in efforts to coordinate load forecasts.

(c) A brief description of any computer modeling, demand forecasting, polls, surveys, or data-gathering activities used in preparation of the forecast.

(2) No later than six months prior to the required date of submission of the forecast, the commission shall supply reporting utilities:

(a) Copies of appropriate commission or other state documents or public statements that include the state energy policy for consideration in preparation of the forecast.

(b) Such current energy policy changes or deliberations which, due to their immediate significance, the commission determines to be relevant for specific identification in the forecast (including but not limited to new legislation, regulations, or adjudicatory findings). It is the commission's intent that such additional factors be limited to issues of current policy which may influence the forecast, but which otherwise may not have been specifically identified by the reporting utility. The reporting utility shall, to the extent possible, provide either a discussion of the impacts of such factors on the forecast or demonstrate how it has taken these factors into account in its forecast. The reporting utility need not adopt such factors as a part of its forecast.

(3) Energy efficiency, demand reduction, and demand response programs and policies of the reporting utility, which support energy conservation and load modification, shall be described along with an estimate of their impacts on energy and peak demand and supply resources.

(4) Energy-price relationships:

(a) To the extent possible, identify changes during the forecast period in energy demand and identify and describe how such changes are accounted for in the forecast.

(b) Describe the methodologies for determining such energy-price relationships, including justification for the methodologies employed.

(C) Forecast documentation. The purpose of the documentation section of the report is to permit a thorough review of the forecast methodology and test its validity. The components of the forecast documentation shall include:

(1) A description of the forecast methodology employed, including:

(a) Overall methodological framework chosen.

(b) Specific analytical techniques used, their purpose, and the forecast component to which they are applied.

(c) The manner in which specific techniques are related in producing the forecast.

(d) Where statistical techniques have been used.

(i) All relevant equations.

(ii) The results of appropriate statistical tests.

(iii) A description of the technique.

(iv) The reason for choosing the technique.

(v) Identification of significant computer software used.

(e) An explanation of how interruptibles, curtailables, and other non-firm requirements are forecast, how they are treated in the total forecast and an identification of demand volumes subject to interruption or curtailment and other non-firm demand.

(f) An identification of customer usage factors and a description of how they are used within the forecast.

(g) Where the methodology for any major customer class has changed significantly from the previous year, a discussion of the rationale for the change.

(2) Assumptions and special information. The reporting utility shall:

(a) For each significant assumption made in preparing the forecasts include a discussion of the basis for the assumption and the impact it has on the forecast results. Give sources of the assumption if other than the reporting utility.

(b) Identify special information bearing on the forecast (e.g., the existence of a major planned industrial expansion program in the area of service).

(3) Data base documentation. The responsibilities of the reporting utility with regard to its forecast data base are as follows:

(a) The reporting utility shall provide:

(i) A brief description of all data sets used in making the forecast, both internal and external, input and output, and a citation to the sources.

(ii) The reasons for the selection of the specific data base used.

(iii) A clear identification of any adjustments made to raw data in order to adapt them for use in the forecast, including for each adjustment, to the extent practicable:

(a) The nature of the adjustment made.

(b) The basis for the adjustment made.

(c) The magnitude of the adjustment.

(b) If a hearing is to be held on the forecast in the current forecast year, the reporting utility shall provide to the commission in electronic formats or other medium as the commission directs all data series, both input and output, raw and adjusted, and model equations used in the preparation of the forecast.

(c) The reporting utility shall be prepared to provide to the commission on request:

(i) Copies of all data sets used in making the forecasts, including both raw and adjusted data, input and output data, and complete descriptions of any mathematical, technical, statistical, or other model used in preparing the data.

(ii) A narrative explaining the data sets, and any adjustments made with the data to adapt it for use in the forecast.

(D) Demand forecast forms. The demand presentation shall include the following elements presented on the indicated forms supplied by the commission.

(1) Service area natural gas demand: actual and forecast Ohio service area natural gas demand (MMCF/year) displayed by major customer class as indicated in form FG1-1.

(2) Monthly gas sendout: a month-by-month forecast of gas sendout in the service area for the current year and the following two years, as indicated on form FG1-3 (this sendout shall conform to the most likely growth scenario).

(3) Range of forecasts: a range of forecasts provided on form FG1-4 for natural gas sales volumes by residential, commercial, and industrial sector and total sales volumes. The range of forecasts shall consist of, at a minimum, three scenarios (highest, lowest, and most likely growth). The methodology for the range forecast shall be determined by the reporting utility and may be based on confidence intervals, different assumptions, or whatever techniques the reporting utility finds appropriate.

(4) Peak and forecast design day requirements: historical peak requirements and forecast design day requirements (MMCF) as indicated on form FG1-5.

(5) Self-help and other transported gas: historical and forecast self-help gas volumes as transported and anticipated to be transported by the reporting utility as indicated on form FG1-6.

(6) Gas distribution companies serving more than one hundred thousand customers should also include service area natural gas demand by industrial sectors: actual and forecast natural gas demand in Ohio only (MMCF/year) by industrial sectors displayed for each of the standard industrial classification (SIC) codes indicated on form FG1-2.

Replaces: 4901:5-7-03

Effective: 02/16/2012
R.C. 119.032 review dates: 11/30/2016
Promulgated Under: 111.15
Statutory Authority: 4901.13 , 4935.04(G)
Rule Amplifies: 4935.04
Prior Effective Dates: 10/12/79, 11/24/83, 11/20/87, 3/24/97, 5/31/07