(A) General guidelines. The supply estimates used in these forecasts must be based upon the reporting utility's independent analysis of alternative sources of gas as well as its current sources. When data is based on material received from current or prospective suppliers, the reporting utility must show that it has made an independent review of such data and arrived at its own analysis of the probable future availability and price of gas from the source in question.
(B) Special subject area. The forecast shall contain a description of the reporting utility's policies and activities involving the procurement of Ohio gas, the impact of such procurement upon the reliability of the reporting utility's gas supply, and the compatibility of such policies and activities with a least-cost procurement plan.
(C) Gas and natural gas supply forecast discussion. A narrative shall be prepared which includes a general description of the methods and procedures used to develop the reporting utility's forecast of:
(1) Gas supply, by source.
(2) Gas supply prices, by source.
(3) Natural gas storage facilities.
(D) Projected sources of gas. A narrative shall be prepared which includes the following:
(1) A description of the projected sources of gas for the forecast period. This description shall include the following:
(a) A list of the projected sources of gas for the forecast period.
(b) A description of the role of company-owned gas in the future supply mix.
(c) A description of the anticipated use of storage facilities in the future supply mix.
(d) The anticipated use of firm and interruptible transportation to obtain gas for system supply and the effect of state and federal policies toward the transportation of natural gas on the reporting utility's supply mix.
(2) A description of those factors which may have an impact on the reporting utility's projected natural gas supplies and its future construction of additional facilities, including but not limited to interconnections with alternate supplies.
(E) Reliability of gas sources. A narrative shall be prepared which includes the following:
(1) The reporting utility's working definition(s) of gas supply reliability.
(2) A description of the methods used by the reporting utility to quantitatively or qualitatively measure gas supply reliability.
(3) The reliability of gas sources over the past five years and the anticipated reliability of each of the reporting utility's gas sources over the forecast period.
(F) Analysis of system peak and winter season planning. The reporting utility shall provide an analysis of its ability to meet peak requirements under design weather conditions throughout the forecast period and shall also provide a description of supply projections for meeting winter season requirements.
(G) Supply forecast forms. The supply presentation shall include the following elements presented on the indicated forms supplied by the commission.
(1) Gas supplies: actual and forecast gas supply volumes (MMCF/year) by source, as indicated in form FG2-1.
(2) Gas prices: actual and forecast gas supply prices (annual average dollars/MCF) by source, as indicated in form FG2-2.
(3) Peak and design day supply: historical and forecast peak day supplies (MMCF) by source, as indicated in form FG2-3.
(4) Natural gas storage facilities: a list of wholly or jointly owned or leased storage facilities, existing and planned over the forecast period, as indicated in form FG2-4.
(5) Propane facilities: a list of existing facilities and those planned over the forecast period, as indicated in form FG2-5.
(6) Other peaking facilities: a list of other sources of peaking gas supplies not included in paragraphs (G)(4) and (G)(5) of this rule, as indicated in form FG2-6.
R.C. 119.032 review dates: 11/30/2016
Promulgated Under: 111.15
Statutory Authority: 4901.13, 4935.04(G)
Rule Amplifies: 4935.04
Prior Effective Dates: 7/26/78, 10/12/79, 11/24/83, 7/2/84, 11/20/87, 3/24/97, 5/31/07