4901:5-5-03 Forecast report requirements for electric utilities and transmission owners.

(A) Summary of the long-term forecast report.

The long-term forecast report shall contain a summary describing the electric utility's forecast of loads and the resource plan to meet that load, and shall include at a minimum:

(1) The planning objectives.

(2) A summary of its forecasts of energy and peak load demands and the key assumptions or projections underlying these forecasts.

(3) A description of the process by which the energy and peak load forecasts were developed.

(B) General guidelines. The following guidelines shall be used in the preparation of the forecast:

(1) The forecast must be based upon independent analysis by the reporting electric transmission owner or electric utility.

(2) The forecast may be based on those forecasting methods that yield the most useful results to the electric transmission owner or electric utility.

(3) Where the required data have not been calculated directly, relevant conversion factors shall be displayed.

(C) Special subject areas.

(1) The following matters shall specifically be addressed:

(a) A description of the extent to which the reporting electric transmission owner or electric utility coordinates its load and resource forecasts with those of other systems such as affiliated systems in a holding company group, associated systems in an integrated operating system or other coordinating organizations, or other neighboring systems.

(b) A description of the manner in which such forecasts are coordinated, and any problems experienced in efforts to coordinate forecasts.

(c) A brief description of any polls, surveys, or data-gathering activities used in preparation of the forecast.

(2) No later than six months prior to the required date of submission of the forecast, the commission may supply the reporting electric transmission owner or electric utility:

(a) Copies of appropriate commission or other state documents or public statements that include the state energy policy for consideration in preparation of the forecast.

(b) Such current energy policy changes or deliberations, which, due to their immediate significance, the commission determines to be relevant for specific identification in the forecast (including but not limited to new legislation, regulations, or adjudicatory findings). The reporting person shall provide a discussion of the impacts of such factors and how it has taken these factors into account.

(3) Existing energy efficiency, demand reduction, and demand response programs and policies of the reporting person, which support energy conservation and load modification, shall be described along with an estimate of their impacts on energy and peak demand and supply resources.

(4) Energy-price relationships:

(a) To the extent possible, identify the relationship between price and energy consumption and describe how such changes are accounted for in the forecast.

(b) To the extent possible, specify a demand function that will or can be used to identify the relationship between any dynamic retail prices and peak load, which captures the impact of price responsive demand.

(c) A description of, and justification for, the methodologies employed for determining such energy-price relationships shall be included.

(D) Forecast documentation. The purpose of the documentation section of the report is to permit a thorough review of the forecast methodology and test its validity. The components of the forecast documentation include:

(1) A description of the forecast methodology employed, including:

(a) Overall methodological framework chosen.

(b) Specific analytical techniques used, their purpose, and the forecast component to which they are applied.

(c) The manner in which specific techniques are related in producing the forecast.

(d) Where statistical techniques have been used:

(i) All relevant equations and data.

(ii) The size of the standard error of the estimate, and the size of the forecasting error, associated with each relevant forecasting model equation, this information shall be included for each forecast at the bottom of forms FE-D1 to FE-D6.

(iii) A description of the technique.

(iv) The reason for choosing the technique.

(v) Identification of significant computer software used.

(e) An explanation of how controllable and interruptible loads are forecasted and how they are treated in the total forecast.

(f) An identification of load factors or other relevant conversion factors and a description of how they are used within the forecast.

(g) Where the methodology for any sector has changed significantly from the previous year, a discussion of the rationale for the change.

(2) Assumptions and special information. The reporting person shall:

(a) For each significant assumption made in preparing the forecasts, include a discussion of the basis for the assumption and the impact it has on the forecast results. Give sources of the assumption if other than the reporting person.

(b) Identify special information bearing on the forecast (e.g., the existence of a major planned industrial expansion program in the area of service or other need determined on a regional basis).

(3) Database documentation. The responsibilities of the reporting person with regard to its forecast database are as follows:

(a) The reporting person shall provide or cause to be provided:

(i) A brief description of all data sets used in making the forecast, both internal and external, input and output, and a citation to the sources.

(ii) The reasons for the selection of the specific database used.

(iii) A clear identification of any significant adjustments made to raw data in order to adapt them for use in the forecast, including, to the extent practicable:

(a) The nature of the adjustment made.

(b) The basis for the adjustment made.

(c) The magnitude of the adjustment.

(b) If a hearing is to be held on the forecast in the current forecast year, the reporting person shall provide to the commission in electronic formats or other medium as the commission directs, all data series, both input and output, raw and adjusted, and model equations used in the preparation of the forecast.

(c) The reporting person shall provide to the commission, on request:

(i) Copies of all data sets used in making the forecasts, including both raw and adjusted data, input and output data, and complete descriptions of any mathematical, technical, statistical, or other model used in preparing the data.

(ii) A narrative explaining the data sets and any adjustments made with the data to adapt it for use in the forecast.

Replaces: 4901:5-5-02

R.C. 119.032 review dates: 11/30/2011 and 12/01/2015
Promulgated Under: 111.15
Statutory Authority: 4901.13 , 4935.04
Rule Amplifies: 4935.04
Prior Effective Dates: 7/26/78, 4/2/83, 6/1/83, 7/2/84, 10/14/85, 11/20/87, 1/15/90, 3/24/97, 9/18/00, 12/10/09