(A) General guidelines. The following
guidelines shall be used in the preparation of the demand
forecast:
(1) The demand forecast
must be based upon independent analysis by the reporting utility.
(2) The demand forecast
may be based on those forecasting methods which yield the most useful results
to the utility.
(3) Where the required
data have not been calculated directly, relevant conversion factors shall be
displayed.
(4) All gas volumes shall
be reported at 14.73 psia.
(B) Special subject areas.
(1) The following matters
shall specifically be addressed:
(a) A description of the extent to which the reporting
utility coordinates its load forecasts with those of other systems such as
affiliated systems in a holding company group, or other neighboring systems
and, if the reporting utility is a combination utility, a description of the
coordination of its gas load forecast with its electric load
forecast.
(b) A description of the manner in which such forecasts are
coordinated, and any problems experienced in efforts to coordinate load
forecasts.
(c) A brief description of any computer modeling, demand
forecasting, polls, surveys, or data-gathering activities used in preparation
of the forecast.
(2) No later than six
months prior to the required date of submission of the forecast, the commission
shall supply reporting utilities:
(a) Copies of appropriate commission or other state
documents or public statements that include the state energy policy for
consideration in preparation of the forecast.
(b) Such current energy policy changes or deliberations
which, due to their immediate significance, the commission determines to be
relevant for specific identification in the forecast (including but not limited
to new legislation, regulations, or adjudicatory findings). It is the
commission's intent that such additional factors be limited to issues of
current policy which may influence the forecast, but which otherwise may not
have been specifically identified by the reporting utility. The reporting
utility shall, to the extent possible, provide either a discussion of the
impacts of such factors on the forecast or demonstrate how it has taken these
factors into account in its forecast. The reporting utility need not adopt such
factors as a part of its forecast.
(3) Energy efficiency,
demand reduction, and demand response programs and policies of the reporting
utility, which support energy conservation and load modification, shall be
described along with an estimate of their impacts on energy and peak demand and
supply resources.
(4) Energy-price
relationships:
(a) To the extent possible, identify changes during the
forecast period in energy demand and identify and describe how such changes are
accounted for in the forecast.
(b) Describe the methodologies for determining such
energy-price relationships, including justification for the methodologies
employed.
(C) Forecast documentation. The purpose
of the documentation section of the report is to permit a thorough review of
the forecast methodology and test its validity. Each gas distribution company
that undergoes a hearing process at the commission shall be prepared to file a
forecast report that includes data used in all forecasts as well as a narrative
description of the forecasting methodology. The commission shall request all
information required to evaluate the forecast filing within thirty days of a
hearing being scheduled in the forecasting case.
(D) Demand forecast forms. The demand
presentation shall include the following elements presented on the indicated
forms supplied by the commission. The forms provided on the commission's
website are as follows:
(1) Form FG1-1:
"Historical and Forecast Service Area Annual Gas
Demand."
(2) Form FG1-2:
"Historical and Forecast of Annual Gas Demand by Industrial Sector
(MMCF/Year)."
(3) Form FG1-3:
"Monthly Ohio Gas Sendout (MMCF)."
(4) Form FG1-4, Form
FG1-4a, Form FG1-4b: "Range Demand Forecast."
(5) Form FG1-5:
"Historic Peak and Forecast Design Day Requirements."
(6) Form FG1-6:
"Supply and Disposition of Self-Help and Other Transported
Volumes."
