Rule 4901:5-7-03 | Gas and natural gas demand forecasts for gas distribution companies serving more than fifteen thousand customers.
(A) General guidelines. The following guidelines shall be used in the preparation of the demand forecast:
(1) The demand forecast must be based upon independent analysis by the reporting utility.
(2) The demand forecast may be based on those forecasting methods which yield the most useful results to the utility.
(3) Where the required data have not been calculated directly, relevant conversion factors shall be displayed.
(4) All gas volumes shall be reported at 14.73 psia.
(B) Special subject areas.
(1) The following matters shall specifically be addressed:
(a) A description of the extent to which the reporting utility coordinates its load forecasts with those of other systems such as affiliated systems in a holding company group, or other neighboring systems and, if the reporting utility is a combination utility, a description of the coordination of its gas load forecast with its electric load forecast.
(b) A description of the manner in which such forecasts are coordinated, and any problems experienced in efforts to coordinate load forecasts.
(c) A brief description of any computer modeling, demand forecasting, polls, surveys, or data-gathering activities used in preparation of the forecast.
(2) No later than six months prior to the required date of submission of the forecast, the commission shall supply reporting utilities:
(a) Copies of appropriate commission or other state documents or public statements that include the state energy policy for consideration in preparation of the forecast.
(b) Such current energy policy changes or deliberations which, due to their immediate significance, the commission determines to be relevant for specific identification in the forecast (including but not limited to new legislation, regulations, or adjudicatory findings). It is the commission's intent that such additional factors be limited to issues of current policy which may influence the forecast, but which otherwise may not have been specifically identified by the reporting utility. The reporting utility shall, to the extent possible, provide either a discussion of the impacts of such factors on the forecast or demonstrate how it has taken these factors into account in its forecast. The reporting utility need not adopt such factors as a part of its forecast.
(3) Energy efficiency, demand reduction, and demand response programs and policies of the reporting utility, which support energy conservation and load modification, shall be described along with an estimate of their impacts on energy and peak demand and supply resources.
(4) Energy-price relationships:
(a) To the extent possible, identify changes during the forecast period in energy demand and identify and describe how such changes are accounted for in the forecast.
(b) Describe the methodologies for determining such energy-price relationships, including justification for the methodologies employed.
(C) Forecast documentation. The purpose of the documentation section of the report is to permit a thorough review of the forecast methodology and test its validity. Each gas distribution company that undergoes a hearing process at the commission shall be prepared to file a forecast report that includes data used in all forecasts as well as a narrative description of the forecasting methodology. The commission shall request all information required to evaluate the forecast filing within thirty days of a hearing being scheduled in the forecasting case.
(D) Demand forecast forms. The demand presentation shall include the following elements presented on the indicated forms supplied by the commission. The forms provided on the commission's website are as follows:
(1) Form FG1-1: "Historical and Forecast Service Area Annual Gas Demand."
(2) Form FG1-2: "Historical and Forecast of Annual Gas Demand by Industrial Sector (MMCF/Year)."
(3) Form FG1-3: "Monthly Ohio Gas Sendout (MMCF)."
(4) Form FG1-4, Form FG1-4a, Form FG1-4b: "Range Demand Forecast."
(5) Form FG1-5: "Historic Peak and Forecast Design Day Requirements."
(6) Form FG1-6: "Supply and Disposition of Self-Help and Other Transported Volumes."
Last updated June 5, 2023 at 8:41 AM
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