Chapter 4901:5-5 | Electric Utility Forecast Reports

Rule 4901:5-5-01 | Definitions.

• Effective: August 31, 2017
• Promulgated Under: 111.15

(A) "ATC" means available transfer capability as defined by the regional reliability organization standards.

(B) "Alternative energy resource" means an advanced energy resource or renewable energy resource, as defined in section 4928.01 of the Revised Code.

(C) "Available system capability" means the installed capability of all generating units on the utility system plus firm purchases.

(D) "Capability" means the net seasonal demonstrated rating of generating equipment, as defined by the regional reliability organization reliability standards.

(E) "Certified territory" means the service area established for an electric supplier under sections 4933.81 to 4933.90 of the Revised Code.

(F) "Demand-side management" means those programs or activities that are designed to modify the magnitude and/or patterns of electricity consumption in a utility's service area by means of equipment installed or actions taken on the customer's premises.

(G) "Electric transmission owner" means the owner of a major utility facility as defined in section 4935.04 of the Revised Code.

(H) "Energy-price relationships" means the calculated or observed effect on peak load, load shape, or energy consumption resulting from changes in the retail price of electricity or other fuels.

(I) "Forecast year," "year of the forecast," or "year zero" means the year in which the forecast is filed.

(J) "Forecast period" means year zero through year ten.

(K) "Integrated operating system" means a group of electric transmission owners or electric utilities who are members of a jointly or commonly operated system as a single entity.

(L) "Integrated resource plan" means that plan or program, established by a person subject to the requirements of this chapter, to furnish electric energy services in a cost-effective and reasonable manner consistent with the provision of adequate and reliable service, which gives appropriate consideration to supply- and demand-side resources and transmission or distribution investments for meeting the person's projected demand and energy requirements.

(M) "Internal load" of a system means the summation of the net output of its generators plus the net of interconnection receipts and deliveries.

(N) "Interruptible load" means load that can be curtailed or reduced at the supplier's discretion or in accordance with a contractual agreement.

(O) "Load" means the amount of power needed to be delivered at a given point on an electric system.

(P) "Load modification" means the impact of a demand-side management, energy efficiency, demand reduction, price responsive demand, or demand response program designed to influence customers' patterns of electricity use in order to modify the utility's load shape.

(Q) "Load shape" means the distribution of a utility's total electricity demand measured over time, usually expressed as a curve which plots megawatts supplied against time of occurrence, and illustrates the varying magnitude of the load during that time period.

(R) "Native load" of a system means the internal load minus interruptible loads.

(S) "Nonutility generation" means any source of electricity which is interconnected with a utility's system, but is not exclusively owned by an electric utility.

(T) "Peak demand" or "peak load" means the electric transmission owner's or electric utility's maximum sixty-minute integrated clock hour predicted or actual load for the year.

(U) "Price responsive demand" means the predictable response to changes in wholesale electricity prices of electricity demand by consumers who are served at retail rates or prices that can vary based on wholesale electricity prices or market conditions.

(V) "Renewable energy resource" has the meaning set forth in division (A)(37) of section 4928.01 of the Revised Code.

(W) "Reporting person" means any person required to file a long-term forecast report under section 4935.04 of the Revised Code.

(X) "Supply-side resources" mean those resources that directly increase the amount of electricity available for consumption in a utility's certified territory.

(Y) "Transfer capability" means the ability of the transmission owner's system to move power over its system to another interconnected transmission system or distribution utility while meeting all national standard reliability requirements.

(Z) "TTC" means total transfer capacity as defined by the regional reliability organization standards and is the measure of the ability of the interconnected electric systems to reliably move or transfer power from one area to another over all transmission lines or paths within the interconnected electric systems.

Last updated July 17, 2023 at 12:13 PM

Supplemental Information

Authorized By: 4901.13, 4935.04
Amplifies: 4935.04
Five Year Review Date: 5/25/2028
Prior Effective Dates: 2/12/2012

Rule 4901:5-5-02 | Purpose and scope.

• Effective: June 5, 2023
• Promulgated Under: 111.15

(A) This chapter specifies the reporting requirements for long-term forecast reports filed by electric utilities and transmission owners pursuant to Chapter 4901:5-1 of the Administrative Code.

(B) Unless otherwise directed by the commission, all reports shall be filed electronically using such forms as may be posted on the commission's web site. Such forms may be changed without further commission entry and each reporting person shall obtain the most current version of the forms prior to filing via the commission's website.

(C) The commission may, upon an application or a motion filed by a party, waive any requirement of this chapter, other than a requirement mandated by statute, for good cause shown.

Last updated June 5, 2023 at 8:39 AM

Supplemental Information

Authorized By: R.C. 4935.04, 4901.13
Amplifies: R.C. 4935.04
Five Year Review Date: 5/25/2028
Prior Effective Dates: 12/10/2009

Rule 4901:5-5-03 | Forecast report requirements for electric utilities and transmission owners.

• Effective: June 5, 2023
• Promulgated Under: 111.15

(A) Summary of the long-term forecast report.

The long-term forecast report shall contain a summary describing the electric utility's forecast of loads and the resource plan to meet that load, and shall include at a minimum:

(1) The planning objectives.

(2) A summary of its forecasts of energy and peak load demands and the key assumptions or projections underlying these forecasts.

(3) A description of the process by which the energy and peak load forecasts were developed.

(B) General guidelines. The following guidelines shall be used in the preparation of the forecast:

(1) The forecast must be based upon independent analysis by the reporting electric transmission owner or electric utility.

(2) The forecast may be based on those forecasting methods that yield the most useful results to the electric transmission owner or electric utility.

(3) Where the required data have not been calculated directly, relevant conversion factors shall be displayed.

(C) Special subject areas.

(1) The following matters shall specifically be addressed:

(a) A description of the extent to which the reporting electric transmission owner or electric utility coordinates its load and resource forecasts with those of other systems such as affiliated systems in a holding company group, associated systems in an integrated operating system or other coordinating organizations, or other neighboring systems.

(b) A description of the manner in which such forecasts are coordinated, and any problems experienced in efforts to coordinate forecasts.

(c) A brief description of any polls, surveys, or data-gathering activities used in preparation of the forecast.

(2) No later than six months prior to the required date of submission of the forecast, the commission may supply the reporting electric transmission owner or electric utility:

(a) Copies of appropriate commission or other state documents or public statements that include the state energy policy for consideration in preparation of the forecast.

(b) Such current energy policy changes or deliberations, which, due to their immediate significance, the commission determines to be relevant for specific identification in the forecast (including, but not limited to new legislation, regulations, or adjudicatory findings). The reporting person shall provide a discussion of the impacts of such factors and how it has taken these factors into account.

(3) Existing energy efficiency, demand reduction, and demand response programs and policies of the reporting person, which support energy conservation and load modification, shall be described along with an estimate of their impacts on energy and peak demand and supply resources.

(4) Energy-price relationships:

(a) To the extent possible, identify the relationship between price and energy consumption and describe how such changes are accounted for in the forecast.

(b) To the extent possible, specify a demand function that will or can be used to identify the relationship between any dynamic retail prices and peak load, which captures the impact of price responsive demand.

(c) A description of, and justification for, the methodologies employed for determining such energy-price relationships shall be included.

(D) Forecast documentation. The purpose of the documentation section of the report is to permit a thorough review of the forecast methodology and test its validity. The components of the forecast documentation include:

(1) A description of the forecast methodology employed, including:

(a) Overall methodological framework chosen.

(b) Specific analytical techniques used, their purpose, and the forecast component to which they are applied.

(c) The manner in which specific techniques are related in producing the forecast.

(d) Where statistical techniques have been used:

(i) All relevant equations and data.

(ii) The size of the standard error of the estimate, and the size of the forecasting error, associated with each relevant forecasting model equation. This information shall be included for each forecast at the bottom of forms FE-D1 to FE-D6.

(iii) A description of the technique.

(iv) The reason for choosing the technique.

(v) Identification of significant computer software used.

(e) An explanation of how controllable and interruptible loads are forecasted and how they are treated in the total forecast.

(f) An identification of load factors or other relevant conversion factors and a description of how they are used within the forecast.

(g) Where the methodology for any sector has changed significantly from the previous year, a discussion of the rationale for the change.

(2) Assumptions and special information. The reporting person shall:

(a) For each significant assumption made in preparing the forecasts, include a discussion of the basis for the assumption and the impact it has on the forecast results. Give sources of the assumption if other than the reporting person.

(b) Identify special information bearing on the forecast (e.g., the existence of a major planned industrial expansion program in the area of service or other need determined on a regional basis).

(3) Database documentation. The responsibilities of the reporting person with regard to its forecast database are as follows:

(a) The reporting person shall provide or cause to be provided:

(i) A brief description of all data sets used in making the forecast, both internal and external, input and output, and a citation to the sources.

(ii) The reasons for the selection of the specific database used.

(iii) A clear identification of any significant adjustments made to raw data in order to adapt them for use in the forecast, including, to the extent practicable:

(a) The nature of the adjustment made.

(b) The basis for the adjustment made.

(c) The magnitude of the adjustment.

(b) If a hearing is to be held on the forecast in the current forecast year, the reporting person shall provide to the commission in electronic formats or other medium as the commission directs, all data series, both input and output, raw and adjusted, and model equations used in the preparation of the forecast.

(c) The reporting person shall provide to the commission, on request:

(i) Copies of all data sets used in making the forecasts, including both raw and adjusted data, input and output data, and complete descriptions of any mathematical, technical, statistical, or other model used in preparing the data.

(ii) A narrative explaining the data sets and any adjustments made with the data to adapt it for use in the forecast.

Last updated June 5, 2023 at 8:39 AM

Supplemental Information

Authorized By: R.C. 4935.04, 4901.13
Amplifies: R.C. 4935.04
Five Year Review Date: 5/25/2028
Prior Effective Dates: 6/1/1983, 1/15/1990

Rule 4901:5-5-04 | Forecasts for electric transmission owners.

• Effective: June 5, 2023
• Promulgated Under: 111.15

(A) General guidelines. The electric transmission owner shall provide or cause to be provided data on the use of its transmission lines and facilities.

(1) The forecast shall include data on all existing transmission lines and associated facilities of one hundred twenty-five kilovolts (kV) and above as defined by the commission, for year zero to year ten.

(2) The forecast shall include data on all planned transmission lines and associated facilities of one hundred twenty-five kilovolts (kV) and above as well as substantial planned additions to, and replacement of existing facilities, as defined by the commission for year zero to year ten.

(3) The reporting electric transmission owner shall be prepared to supply to the commission on demand, additional data and maps of transmission lines and facilities, including diagrams and analysis using system planning tools. To the extent the information sought from electric transmission owners in this rule contains critical energy infrastructure information, such information may remain at the reporting person's premises, but subject to inspection and review at the request of the commission's staff, unless the commission staff determines it necessary to take possession.

(B) Transmission energy data and peak demand forecast forms.

The electric transmission owner's forecast shall be submitted in an electronic form prescribed by the commission or its staff which are as follows:

(1) Form FE-T1: "Transmission Energy Delivery Forecast."

(2) Form FE-T2: "System Seasonal Peak Load Forecast."

(3) Form FE-T3: "Total Monthly Energy Forecast."

(4) Form FE-T4: "Monthly Peak Internal Load Forecast."

(5) Form FE-T5: "Monthly Energy Transactions for the Most Recent Year."

(6) Form FE-T6: "Conditions at Time of Monthly Peak."

(7) Form FE-T7: "Characteristics of Existing Transmission Lines."

(8) Form FE-T8: "Summary of Existing Substations on Transmission Lines."

(9) Form FE-T9: "Specifications of Planned Transmission Lines."

(10) Form FE-T10: "Summary of Proposed Substations."

(C) Substantiation of the planned transmission system.

The reporting electric transmission owner shall submit a substantiation of transmission development plans, including:

(1) Description and transcription diagrams of the base case load flow studies of the transmission owner's transmission system in Ohio, one for the current year and one as projected either three or five years into the future, and provide base case load flow studies in electronic form in PSSE format along with transcription diagrams for the base cases.

(2) A tabulation of and transcription diagrams for a representative number of contingency cases studied along with brief statements concerning the results.

(3) Analysis of proposed solutions to problems identified in paragraph (C)(2) of this rule.

(4) Adequacy of the electric transmission owner's transmission system to withstand natural disasters and overload conditions.

(5) Analysis of the electric transmission owner's transmission system to permit power interchange with neighboring systems.

(6) A diagram showing the electric transmission owner's import and export transfer capabilities and identifying the limiting element(s) during each season of the reporting period. In addition, the reporting electric transmission owner will provide a listing of transmission loading relief (TLR) procedures called during the last two seasons for which actual data are available. That listing may include only those TLRs called as a result of a transmission limit on the reporting electric transmission owner's transmission system. For each TLR event, the listing shall include the maximum level, and the duration at the maximum level, and the magnitude (in MW) of the power curtailments.

(7) A description of any studies regarding transmission system improvement, including, but not limited to, any studies of the potential for reducing line losses, thermal loading, and low voltage, and for improving access to alternative energy resources.

(8) A switching diagram of the transmission network.

(D) Regional and bulk power requirements.

To avoid the inefficiencies associated with having each electric transmission owner report this data, the electric transmission owners may have the regional transmission system operator submit a single report on their behalf. This information shall be provided as soon as it becomes available. Data provided to the commission concerning the electric transmission owner's existing and planned bulk power transmission system (one hundred kV and above) shall include the following:

(1) The most recent regional power existing facilities and an authorized map.

(2) A plan on the bulk power transmission network of the region in service (total certified territory of the companies in the region including out-of-state certified territories) at the time of the report, including interfaces with adjoining regions.

(3) Regional transmission system power interchange matrix.

(4) A transmission diagram and a summary of the load flow base case studies of the bulk power network of the region as it now exists at the time of reporting.

(5) A plan of the bulk power transmission network of the region (including interties with adjoining regions) and the general routing of facilities committed or tentatively projected for service within ten years, including identification of principal substations, operating voltages, and projected in-service dates.

(6) A list and diagram showing transmission constraints of the bulk power transmission network, including interconnections.

Last updated June 5, 2023 at 8:39 AM

Supplemental Information

Authorized By: R.C. 4935.04, 4901.13
Amplifies: R.C. 4935.04
Five Year Review Date: 5/25/2028
Prior Effective Dates: 1/15/1990, 8/17/1990

Rule 4901:5-5-05 | Energy and demand forecasts for electric utilities.

• Effective: June 5, 2023
• Promulgated Under: 111.15

(A) General guidelines.

(1) The reporting person shall, upon request, provide or cause to be provided data on the use of the electric utility's distribution lines and facilities.

(2) The reporting person shall, upon request, specify in detail the methodology employed to produce monthly forecasts of energy and peak load for the current year and one year in the future.

(3) The reporting person shall, upon request, supply to the commission additional data and maps of distribution lines and facilities.

(B) Distribution energy data and peak demand forecast forms.

The distribution forecast shall be submitted by electric utilities in an electronic form prescribed by the commission or its staff through the following forms:

(1) Form FE-D1: "Electric Utility Ohio Service Area Energy Consumption Forecast."

(2) Form FE-D2: "System Service Area Energy Consumption Forecast."

(3) Form FE-D3: " Electric Utility Ohio Seasonal Peak Load Demand Forecast."

(4) Form FE-D4: "System Seasonal Peak Load Demand Forecast."

(5) Form FE-D5: "Monthly Net Energy for Load Forecast."

(6) Form FE-D6: "Monthly Internal Peak Load Forecast."

(C) Substantiation of the planned distribution system.

The reporting electric utility shall, upon request, submit substantiation of distribution development plans.

(D) Each electric utility which seeks recovery of project costs through division (B)(2) of section 4928.143 of the Revised Code shall be prepared to file a forecast report that includes data used in all forecasts being used to justify cost recovery as well as a narrative description of the reason for the requested cost recovery. The initial forecast filing shall note this request for cost recovery in a cover page. The commission shall request all information required to evaluate the forecast filing supporting the request for cost recovery under divisions (B)(2)(b) and (B)(2)(c) of section 4928.143 of the Revised Code.

Last updated June 5, 2023 at 8:40 AM

Supplemental Information

Authorized By: R.C. 4935.04, 4901.13
Amplifies: R.C. 4935.04
Five Year Review Date: 5/25/2028
Prior Effective Dates: 1/15/1990, 12/10/2009

Rule 4901:5-5-06 | Integrated resource plans.

• Effective: June 5, 2023
• Promulgated Under: 111.15

(A) Electricity resource forecast forms. As part of the long-term forecast report, an electric utility shall submit the following forms completed as published by the commission:

(1) Form FE-R1, "Monthly Forecast of Electric Utility's Ohio Service Area Peak Load and Reserves to Meet Ohio Service Area Peak Load."

(2) Form FE-R2, "Monthly Forecast of System Peak Load and Reserves to Meet System Peak Load."

(3) Form FE-R3: "Summary of Existing Electric Generation Facilities for the System."

(4) Form FE-R4: "Actual Generating Capability Dedicated to Meet Ohio Peak Load."

(5) Form FE-R5: "Projected Generating Capability Changes to Meet Ohio Peak Load."

(6) Form FE-R6: "Electric Utility's Actual and Forecast Ohio Peak Load and Reserves to Meet Ohio Peak Load."

(7) Form FE-R7: "Actual and Forecast System Peak Load and Reserves to Meet System Peak Load."

(8) Form FE-R8: "Electric Utility's Actual and Forecast Ohio Peak Load and Reserves to Meet Ohio Peak Load."

(9) Form FE-R9: "Actual and Forecast System Peak Load and Reserves to Meet System Peak Load."

(B) Each electric utility which seeks recovery of project costs through division (B)(2) of section 4928.143 of the Revised Code shall be prepared to file a forecast report that includes data used in all forecasts being used to justify cost recovery as well as a narrative description of the reason for the requested cost recovery. The initial forecast filing shall note this request for cost recovery in a cover page. The commission shall request all information required to evaluate the forecast filing supporting the request for cost recovery under divisions (B)(2)(b) and (B)(2)(c) of section 4928.143 of the Revised Code.

Last updated June 5, 2023 at 8:40 AM

Supplemental Information

Authorized By: R.C. 4935.04, 4901.13
Amplifies: R.C. 4935.04
Five Year Review Date: 5/25/2028
Prior Effective Dates: 12/10/2009, 2/12/2012, 8/31/2017